1 thought on “Ji Min: Why should special assets manage counter -cyclical?”

  1. In the context of various risk events that have undergone major changes in the global low interest rate and external environment, the scale of the special asset industry is increasing, and the market potential is very large. Ji Min, a member of the China Fortune Management 50 Men forum (CWM50) and director of the People's Bank of China, pointed out that the management of special assets was actually a cycle management and a typical value investment in the second session of the 20th Chinese Special Assets Forum. , To dig out its value. In the state of crisis, the value of special assets or dilemma assets will become very low. High -risk assets have this characteristic. There will be a period of value recovery in the future. A long period of management. The following is a record of speeches.
    I talked about the opportunities and challenges of the special asset industry in the future from a macro perspective.
    First of all, one of the most significant features of the global modern financial environment is low interest rates. This feature may last a longer time. If this judgment is established, it will have a significant impact on the pricing of special assets or dilemma assets and transactions.
    we have observed a phenomenon now. From the global point of view, as one end of the assets, the so -called security assets like government bonds are the other end of the assets, which is a special asset discussed today. At the demand side, the pricing or interest rate of security assets is getting lower and lower. It was impacted by the new crown epidemic this year. The yield of 10 -year Treasury bonds in the United States fell below 1%, and now there are many negative interest rate assets. The pricing of security assets is constantly falling. This is related to monetary policy, and on the other hand, it also reflects all kinds of uncertainty and risk challenges worldwide. We are in a long -term change in a century. Objectively speaking, in the process of against globalization, or globalization is in the process of model transformation, various risk events and black swan incidents have emerged endlessly, which will increase safety assets Demand. At the same time, it will also bring another problem, and the return of assets is getting lower and lower. In this context, the scale of special assets or dilemma brought about by various uncertainty and various challenges will continue to grow. From the beginning of the 1990s, to the shattering of the bubble bubble of the Nasdaq technology stocks from 1999 to 2000, to the subprime crisis in 2008, and then the impact of the new crown epidemic. We see that the yield of high -yield bonds continues to decline in general, which is a feature. From the perspective of credit spreads, the spread between high -yield bonds and security assets is also expanding.
    In short, under the context of the global low interest rate environment, major changes in the external environment, and significantly increased risk events, on the one hand, the scale of the special asset industry is increasing, and the market potential is very large; on the other hand, assets How to better reflect the return on investment and also bring us a certain challenge, so opportunities and challenges coexist. For us, a very important aspect is how to better tap the value of special assets and truly develop the market into a market for asset management, which involves the second issue I want to talk about.
    The second, how to make the market truly a market for asset management. From the perspective of mature markets, since the 1980s, special assets themselves have been an important part of the asset management market.
    Maku capital is a better institution for asset management in the special asset industry. Yesterday I had a telephone exchange with them and told me a very important situation. From the beginning of the 1990s to the present, a total of four relatively large financial crisis around the world has gained a generous return on the cycle operation of oak capital. About 10 years in the past 40 years is a cycle. At the beginning of the crisis, the assets were bought in the crisis. A closed fund was issued. In 10 years and one cycle, the average annualized return of investors at the end of the cycle was as high as 23%.
    The investment strategy is roughly divided into two stages. The first three years are the investment period. At the beginning of the crisis, he found assets for investment, and the income obtained during the period was also used for circular investment. For example, in the outbreak of the epidemic in March this year, the United States released a large number of US dollar liquidity and sold assets. The first to sell high -risk assets such as leverage loans, its price fell very low. When they saw this opportunity, they bought a lot of assets. By May, under the Federal Reserve's super loose policy, the price of these assets rebounded quickly, and the assets were sold to get a return. As a closed fund, it would not be distributed to investors at this time. Essence
    It seven years later is used to manage these assets, gradually withdraw from investment, and then assign them to investors. The management of special assets is actually a cyclical management, a typical value investment, and it is necessary to tap its value. In the state of crisis, the value of special assets or dilemma assets will become very low. High -risk assets have this characteristic. There will be a period of value recovery in the future. A long period of management. It can be seen from this case that the market potential of the entire special asset industry is now very large.
    In the end of the 1990s, we established four asset management companies, and now have gradually formed a competitive pattern of a diversified market entity, especially under the promotion of digital technology, the retail end of the entire special asset industry chain has the retail end of the special asset industry chain. It has made great progress and provides conditions for marketization, transparency and standardization. But in general, my country's special assets have not yet truly realized the concept of asset management in the sense of wealth management. From the perspective of product structure, in bank wealth management products, R1 and R2 -level low -risk products accounting for low -risk products with currency funds and high -level bonds are very high, exceeding 80%.
    Under the norms of the new rules of asset management, the requirements of net worth transformation have been significantly improved. In this context, low -risk assets can be managed in accordance with the fair value of the market, which is also a normal phenomenon in the current stage. However, we should also see that the product structure of asset management reflects that we are still in the initial development stage.
    If to turn special assets into an important category of real residents' wealth management and value -added, it is still necessary to have a lot of effort in marketization, professionalization, and training qualified investors. Among them, according to the introduction of Oak Capital, there are about six types of investors in special assets: First, sovereign wealth funds, for example, CCCAT and other state -owned enterprises allocate some assets in oak funds as part of decentralized investment and inverse cycle investment parts ; Second, long -term funds, including various types of insurance funds (such as corporate annuity, pension, etc.); third, family offices, many large private wealth invests through the family office; fourth, all kinds of university donation funds; fifth, private banks Customers, the so -called high -net -worth individuals; Six, in addition to the above -mentioned institutional investors or high net worth individuals, ordinary individual investors account for nearly 30%. Therefore, from the perspective of investor structure, special asset funds are more diversified and can actually become an important channel for residents' wealth preservation and value -added management.
    The first, we need to cultivate long -term investment in the asset management industry, especially long -term investment and value investment in the special asset industry. Do not ignore the value of special assets in conceptual. We must encourage long -term funds and high net worth qualified investors to participate in special asset investment, and even in the context of the improvement of the supply and improvement of digital and standardized transformation through some ways, we encourage individual investors to invest in some special assets. According to domestic successful cases, in the context of digital transformation, this type of high -risk assets can actually be accepted by ordinary investors. For example, in the past, Ali Group's asset securitization of low -income people and small and micro enterprises loans was very large. This approach was actually the standardization of digital technology. Essence In terms of cultivating investors, on the one hand, it is necessary to cultivate qualified investors, and on the other hand, it is necessary to gradually eliminate some restrictions on special asset management products and its investment.
    The second, the current tax support policy is mainly for public fundraising funds. In the future, whether the tax support policy and the structure of the asset management industry can be combined to encourage equity investment and special asset investment. Investors and managers give more tax policy support. It is also worth discussing whether it can be set up at the national level to attract more social funds to the special asset industry. The higher the marketization of the special asset management industry, the more social funds will be attracted. For example, some private equity funds can better connect with the new rules of asset management and make them more motivated to raise funds to invest in special assets to invest in special assets Management industry can also promote the improvement of new rules of asset management and optimize the structure of asset management.
    Third, the special asset management industry can also help the economic structure transformation and upgrade.
    In recent years, we are in the changes in the transformation of new and old kinetic energy or the transformation and upgrading of economic structure. In particular, the digital development has accelerated this trend, and the epidemic will accelerate this change. We have also promoted the mixed reform of state -owned enterprises and completed many debt -to -equity swaps, debt restructuring and asset reorganization work. Next, how to deepen from the level of financial reorganization, from the level of financial asset management to The in -depth combination of state -owned enterprises mixed reforms and capital market mergers and acquisitions and reorganizations is also worth exploring. It is an important way to achieve value -added value.
    (Author of this article: China Wealth Management 50 People Forum (CWM50))

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